US Employment Rates: Difference between revisions

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==== March Jobs Comments====
==== March Jobs Comments====
The '''March report came in stronger than expected'''.  As mentioned in the February comments, there was a significant rebound in March which cancels some weakness in February from ~30,000 Kaiser Permanente workers who were on strike and came back to work before the March survey.
The '''March report came in stronger than expected.''' Much of the rebound reflects the return of roughly 30,000 Kaiser Permanente workers who were on strike during the February survey period. January saw a large upward revision, February a large downward revision, for a net change of –7,000 across the two months.


January had a large upward revision and February a large downward revision for a net impact of 7,000 ''less'' jobs over those two months.
Despite March’s improvement, the broader trend remains weak. The U.S. is experiencing the '''lowest non‑recession job growth in over twenty years.'''


We are experiencing the '''lowest job growth in a non-recession period in over twenty years'''.  Headwinds include:
Key headwinds include:
# extreme anti-immigration policy
*Reduced labor‑force growth due to immigration restrictions and low birth rates
# low non-immigration birth rates (less people entering the workforce)
*Ongoing retirements among baby boomers
# material number of baby boomers continue to exit workforce
*Higher business costs from tariffs and geopolitical instability
# high uncertainly and increasing costs because of tariffs and wars causing businesses to curb hiring to protect profits
*Uncertainty around AI‑driven productivity shifts, which may reduce hiring
# Uncertainly and projected increases in productivity from artificial intelligence


The '''next couple months will be very telling''' -- will we bounce back from the dismal jobs year in 2025, will we continue to flatline at historically low rates, or will we further deteriorate due to the increasing uncertainly, rising costs, etc.
The next few months will show whether the labor market stabilizes, continues to flatline, or deteriorates further.


===== Chart: 2021-2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls =====
===== Chart: 2021-2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls =====
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====Broader Longer Term Trend Commentary====
====Broader Longer Term Trend Commentary====


'''Excluding the ''Financial Crisis'' and ''Covid-19'', job creation in the United States is the worst since 2003.'''
'''Excluding the ''Financial Crisis'' and the ''Covid‑19'' shock, job creation is the weakest since 2003.''' Businesses face rising costs from Trump's chaotic tariffs, supply‑chain disruptions, and global conflicts, and many are responding by slowing hiring or increasing layoffs.
 
Trump's chaotic tariffs, record low consumer confidence, and shifts in macro trends, like the boom in artificial intelligence, have increased costs for US business who have responded by slowing hiring or increasing layoffs.
 
About $200 billion of US tariffs on "other countries," or nearly the entire amount of tariff increases since 2024, were paid by US Businesses and US consumers.  Foreign countries do '''''not''''' pay tariffs, contrary to what any president insists.


Through February 2026, roughly $200 billion in tariffs imposed since 2024 have been '''paid primarily by U.S. businesses and consumers, not foreign governments.'''  Trump's insistence that "governments are paying tariffs to do business in the US is complete nonsense.  Combined with low consumer confidence and rapid shifts in technology, these pressures have weighed on employment growth.


====== Chart: 2000-2026 Annual Nonfarm Payrolls ======
====== Chart: 2000-2026 Annual Nonfarm Payrolls ======
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====== Chart: 2001-2026 Rolling 12-Month Average Monthly Job Creation ======
====== Chart: 2001-2026 Rolling 12-Month Average Monthly Job Creation ======
To maintain employment demand, the difference between new job market entrants and those leaving the market for retirement, '''we need to produce about 85k-100k'''. Historically, this number has been between 150k-200k, but demographics have decreased the requirement.
To keep pace with demographic trends, the U.S. needs roughly 85,000–100,000 new jobs per month. '''Over the past year, the economy has added only ~22,000 jobs per month,''' based on level‑to‑level payroll data — the weakest non‑recession performance in more than two decades.
 
'''We are significantly under that rate.  Through March 2026, we are currently averaging only 22k jobs per month''' over the past 12 months, the worst in any non-recession year in over twenty years.


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Revision as of 18:49, 4 April 2026

Using Data Updated with March 2026 data as of: April 4, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the primary source for data.

Research Summary and Editorial

March Jobs Comments

The March report came in stronger than expected. Much of the rebound reflects the return of roughly 30,000 Kaiser Permanente workers who were on strike during the February survey period. January saw a large upward revision, February a large downward revision, for a net change of –7,000 across the two months.

Despite March’s improvement, the broader trend remains weak. The U.S. is experiencing the lowest non‑recession job growth in over twenty years.

Key headwinds include:

  • Reduced labor‑force growth due to immigration restrictions and low birth rates
  • Ongoing retirements among baby boomers
  • Higher business costs from tariffs and geopolitical instability
  • Uncertainty around AI‑driven productivity shifts, which may reduce hiring

The next few months will show whether the labor market stabilizes, continues to flatline, or deteriorates further.

Chart: 2021-2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls

This chart shows the change in the number of employed persons in the United States from month-to-month for the past five-plus years.

I would caution that since over nine million jobs were lost in 2020, the first year the US was impacted by Covid-19 and last year of Trump's first term, that most of the robust job gains in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 were a reversal of the tremendous losses.

There is a very clear and notable decline in jobs growth/increase in job losses in 2025, during Trump's first year of his second term.

Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls Since 2021


Broader Longer Term Trend Commentary

Excluding the Financial Crisis and the Covid‑19 shock, job creation is the weakest since 2003. Businesses face rising costs from Trump's chaotic tariffs, supply‑chain disruptions, and global conflicts, and many are responding by slowing hiring or increasing layoffs.

Through February 2026, roughly $200 billion in tariffs imposed since 2024 have been paid primarily by U.S. businesses and consumers, not foreign governments. Trump's insistence that "governments are paying tariffs to do business in the US is complete nonsense. Combined with low consumer confidence and rapid shifts in technology, these pressures have weighed on employment growth.

Chart: 2000-2026 Annual Nonfarm Payrolls

This chart shows the change in the number of employed persons in the United States each calendar year, for the past 26+ years, which includes:

  • Recession from March 2001 through November 2001
  • The Great Recession (Global Financial Crisis) from December 2007 through June 2009
  • Covid-19 Recession from February 2020 through April 2020

Because the latter two were highly unusual, I have filled the data bars with patterns to caution on interpretation of and attribution of responsibility for at least some of the data.

Annual Payrolls Since 2000

Chart: 2001-2026 Rolling 12-Month Average Monthly Job Creation

To keep pace with demographic trends, the U.S. needs roughly 85,000–100,000 new jobs per month. Over the past year, the economy has added only ~22,000 jobs per month, based on level‑to‑level payroll data — the weakest non‑recession performance in more than two decades.

Rolling 12-Month Average Monthly Job Creation Since 2001

Employment Explained

Note: "jobs" and "payrolls" will be used interchangeably

CES0000000001, or Nonfarm Payrolls is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official monthly measure of total nonfarm employment in the United States. It comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects payroll data from roughly 149,000 businesses and 651,000 worksites to estimate employment, hours, and earnings across the economy. This series represents:

  • All employees on nonfarm payrolls
  • Nationwide
  • Seasonally adjusted
  • Reported monthly
  • Available back to 1939

It is one of the most widely watched indicators of U.S. labor‑market health and is a core component of the monthly Employment Situation report.

These data are revised regularly to maintain accuracy. Each monthly estimate is updated twice as additional employer data arrives. Once a year, the BLS performs a major “benchmark revision” that aligns the payroll employment series with comprehensive unemployment‑insurance tax records, often adjusting up to two years of historical data. Seasonal adjustment factors are also updated annually, ensuring the series reflects true economic trends rather than seasonal patterns.

1939-2024

Archive

February Jobs Comments

The February jobs report (released in March) was exceptionally weak, showing a −92,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls. Some of this may reverse in March, as healthcare employment fell due to strike activity that could rebound once resolved

Productivity and wage gains were strong, which can be a mixed signal—often reflecting firms doing more with fewer workers, a pattern that can widen inequality and disproportionately affect minorities and younger workers.

Large downward revisions also changed the picture for prior months: December was revised from +48,000 to −17,000, and January was revised down by 4,000. In total, December and January employment levels are now 69,000 lower than previously reported.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69,000 lower than previously reported.


Sources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics-Data Tools-Data Retrieval Tools-BLS Popular Series
    • Civilian Labor Force (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS11000000
    • Civilian Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS12000000
    • Civilian Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS13000000
    • Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS14000000
    • Total Nonfarm Employment - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0000000001
    • Total Private Average Weekly Hours of All Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000002
    • Total Private Average Weekly Hours of Prod. and Nonsup. Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000007
    • Total Private Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000003
    • Total Private Average Hourly Earnings of Prod. and Nonsup. Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000008
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