US Employment Rates: Difference between revisions

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=== Research Summary and Editorial ===
=== Research Summary and Editorial ===
Excluding the ''Financial Crisis'' and ''Covid-19'', job creation in the United States is the worst since 2003.
Trump's chaotic tariffs, record low consumer confidence, and shifts in macro trends, like the boom in artificial intelligence, have increased costs for US business who have responded by slowing hiring or increasing layoffs.
About $200 billion of US tariffs on "other countries," or nearly the entire amount of the tariffs, were paid by US Businesses and US consumers.  Foreign countries do '''''not''''' pay tariffs, contrary to what any president insists.


=== Employment Explained ===
=== Employment Explained ===

Revision as of 02:32, 24 February 2026

Using Data Updated with January 2026 data as of: February 23, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the primary source for data.

Research Summary and Editorial

Excluding the Financial Crisis and Covid-19, job creation in the United States is the worst since 2003.

Trump's chaotic tariffs, record low consumer confidence, and shifts in macro trends, like the boom in artificial intelligence, have increased costs for US business who have responded by slowing hiring or increasing layoffs.

About $200 billion of US tariffs on "other countries," or nearly the entire amount of the tariffs, were paid by US Businesses and US consumers. Foreign countries do not pay tariffs, contrary to what any president insists.

Employment Explained

Note: "jobs" and "payrolls" will be used interchangeably

CES0000000001, or Nonfarm Payrolls is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official monthly measure of total nonfarm employment in the United States. It comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects payroll data from roughly 149,000 businesses and 651,000 worksites to estimate employment, hours, and earnings across the economy. This series represents:

  • All employees on nonfarm payrolls
  • Nationwide
  • Seasonally adjusted
  • Reported monthly
  • Available back to 1939

It is one of the most widely watched indicators of U.S. labor‑market health and is a core component of the monthly Employment Situation report.

These data are revised regularly to maintain accuracy. Each monthly estimate is updated twice as additional employer data arrives. Once a year, the BLS performs a major “benchmark revision” that aligns the payroll employment series with comprehensive unemployment‑insurance tax records, often adjusting up to two years of historical data. Seasonal adjustment factors are also updated annually, ensuring the series reflects true economic trends rather than seasonal patterns.

2021-2026 Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls

This chart shows the change in the number of employed persons in the United States from month-to-month.

We're looking at a little over five years of data.

I would caution that since over nine million jobs were lost in 2020, the first year the US was impacted by Covid-19 and last year of Trump's first term, that most of the robust job gains in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 were a reversal of the tremendous losses.

There is a very clear and notable decline in jobs growth/increase in job losses in 2025, during Trump's first year of his second term.

250 Years of Inflation 250 Years of Inflation

Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls Since 2021

2000-2026 Annual Nonfarm Payrolls

This chart shows the change in the number of employed persons in the United States each calendar year.

We're looking at 26+ years of data here, which includes:

  • Recession from March 2001 through November 2001
  • The Great Recession (Global Financial Crisis) from December 2007 through June 2009
  • Covid-19 Recession from February 2020 through April 2020

Because the last two were highly unusual, I have filled the data bars with patterns to caution on interpretation of at least some of the data.

250 Years of Inflation 250 Years of Inflation

Annual Nonfarm Payrolls Since 2000

1939-2024

Sources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics-Data Tools-Data Retrieval Tools-BLS Popular Series
    • Civilian Labor Force (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS11000000
    • Civilian Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS12000000
    • Civilian Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS13000000
    • Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) - LNS14000000
    • Total Nonfarm Employment - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0000000001
    • Total Private Average Weekly Hours of All Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000002
    • Total Private Average Weekly Hours of Prod. and Nonsup. Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000007
    • Total Private Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000003
    • Total Private Average Hourly Earnings of Prod. and Nonsup. Employees - Seasonally Adjusted - CES0500000008