US Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Difference between revisions

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis makes monthly updates to data which typically cause minor changes for the past several years.


=== What is GDP? ===
== Recent ==


[http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=gross%20domestic%20product-,gross%20domestic%20product,-(GDP)%20%2D%2D%20The ''Gross domestic product''], or '''GDP''', is the most widely accepted measurement of the health of a nation's economy.
=== Five Year Quarterly Real GDP ===
It is comprised of four major components:
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# consumption (C) -- represents private-consumption expenditures by households and nonprofit organizations
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# investment (I) -- refers to business expenditures by businesses and home purchases by households
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# government spending (G) -- denotes expenditures on goods and services by the government
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# net exports (NX) -- represents a nation’s exports minus its imports
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Each of the major components have sub-components, which also have sub-components, etc.  In fact, the data used to create GDP are compiled at a very granular level.  Links to additional learnings are here: [http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=gross%20domestic%20product-,gross%20domestic%20product,-(GDP)%20%2D%2D%20The ''Gross domestic product'']


=== How do we measure GDP and changes in GDP? ===
=== Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Quarters ===
The four components (C, I, G, and NX) can be referred to in '''nominal''' or '''real terms.'''  ''Real'' terms are nominal measurements adjusted for inflation.  This is critical for comparing growth from one year to the next ([http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=Britannica-,YOY,-%2D%2D%20means%20year%20over '''YOY''' or '''YOY Δ''']).  For example, if GDP increased from 100 in 2020 to 110 in 2021, at first glance it looks like GDP increased by 10% YOY.  If inflation was 5% YOY, however, then ''real GDP growth'' was actually only 5%.
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The below table show's a real example (in billions of US $):
=== Annual Real GDP Since 2021 ===
{| class="wikitable"
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|-
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! style="text-align:center;" | Year !! style="text-align:center;" | Nominal GDP !! % !! style="text-align:center;" | Real GDP!! %
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|-
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| style="text-align:center;" | 2020 || style="text-align:right;" | 21,323.0 || || style="text-align:right;" | 20,234.2
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|-
| style="text-align:center;" | 2021 || style="text-align:right;" | 23,594.0 || || style="text-align:right;" | 21,407.6
|-
| style="text-align:center;" | YOY Δ || style="text-align:right;" | 2,271.0 || +10.7 || style="text-align:right;" | 1,173.4|| +5.8
|}


=== How do we interpret GDP and GDP Δ measurements? ===
=== Annual Headline and Real GDP Since 2021 ===
* First, it is important to acknowledge the ''relative'' size of each of the four components:
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# C = [http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=notate%20change.-,~,-%2D%2D%20is%20a%20symbol '''~''']68%
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# I = ~18%
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# G = ~17%
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# NX = ~-3%
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The relative sizes of these major components have been consistent for most of the past century:
=== Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Years+ ===
[[File:Gdp_major_component_contributions.png | 800px]]
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* Having established the relative size and influence each component has on total GDP, I'm going to add some opinion as to the meaning and importance of each:
=== Annual Rates of Change of GDP Components ===
# ''Investment'' -- Most western economies have elements of both capitalist and socialist influence.  Compared to other nations, the United States skews more towards a capitalist economy.  It is within this context, that I rank ''Private Investment'' as the most important of the four major GDP components.  When private individuals and companies are willing to ''invest'' or put their personal capital at risk, they are signaling a high degree of confidence in the ''future'' economy and thus their ability to profit in the future from the risks they make today.
# ''Consumption'' -- While overwhelmingly the largest component and two and a half times the size of ''Investment'', I consider this second in importance.  Certainly, consumers' confidence in the current and future economy largely drive consumption of goods and services, there are factors that can influence this figure such as:
## Inflation, which generally creates a pull-forward mentality (hurry up and buy now before prices go higher)
## Consumers have a history of spending outside of their means -- taking on debts they cannot repay
## Compared to the risk and long term nature of investment, consumption is more of a present indicator than a forward looking indicator
# ''Government'' -- While about the same size as ''Investment,'' in the context of the health of a largely capitalist economy, increases in government spending should be viewed with criticism.  It is in this context that I will analyze and rank increases in government spending inversely, meaning, high YOY increases are undesirable and decreases favored.  For a capitalist economy, stable or decreasing government spending while increases in investment and consumption contribute to an overall growing GDP are the best-case scenario.  Additional context to consider is that currently, increases in government spending in western nations are largely unfunded, meaning public debt is incurred to fund the increases -- another negative perspective.
# ''Net Export'' -- While a real contributing factor to YOY changes in GDP, and worthy of it's own studies, I will not be considering the impacts of this component because of it's small relative size.  For perspective, however, in a global economy, the ideal state would be a situation where net imports and exports are zero, meaning a country imports the same amount of goods and services that it exports.  This would signify the fairest trade among all nations.  The reality, however, is that deficits, which the US has run for several decades, have been largely caused by using cheaper labor overseas to build the goods that we consume.  Next to a zero impact from ''net exports'', would be zero or minimal YOY changes in ''Net Exports'', indicating stability.


=== 90 Year US GDP Table ===
==== Consumption and Investment ====
Consumption, which is 68% of total GDP and by far the largest component, and Investment, which is 18% and similarly sized to Government (next chart) which is 17%.


Sources:
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* For years 1930-2023: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey&_gl=1*2cz8zx*_ga*NTY2OTg1NDg2LjE3MjYyMzUyMDM.*_ga_J4698JNNFT*MTcyNzA5ODgxNy45LjEuMTcyNzA5OTgzMS40OS4wLjA.
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** For [[YOY]] 1930-2023 Table 1.1.1
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** Table 1.1.5
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** Table 1.1.9
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* https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second


{| class="wikitable sortable"
==== Government and Exports ====
|-
Government spend is 17% of GDP, and Net Export, which is Exports minus Imports accounts for the last 3%.
! Year !! President !! Political Party !! 1:Gross domestic product !! 1:GDP Rank !! 2:Consumption Rank !! 7:Private Investment Rank !! 22:Govt Rank
|-
| 1930 || Hoover || Republican || -8.5 || 93 || 94 || 91 || 86
|-
| 1931 || Hoover || Republican || -6.4 || 92 || 93 || 92 || 72
|-
| 1932 || Hoover || Republican || -12.9 || 95 || 95 || 95 || 6
|-
| 1933 || Roosevelt || Democratic || -1.2 || 87 || 90 || 6 || 9
|-
| 1934 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 10.8 || 5 || 5 || 3 || 89
|-
| 1935 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8.9 || 6 || 10 || 2 || 59
|-
| 1936 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 12.9 || 4 || 2 || 9 || 90
|-
| 1937 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 5.1 || 24 || 39 || 12 || 5
|-
| 1938 || Roosevelt || Democratic || -3.3 || 91 || 89 || 90 || 82
|-
| 1939 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8 || 9 || 18 || 11 || 85
|-
| 1940 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8.8 || 7 || 22 || 5 || 67
|-
| 1941 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 17.7 || 2 || 6 || 14 || 94
|-
| 1942 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 18.9 || 1 || 91 || 94 || 95
|-
| 1943 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 17 || 3 || 54 || 93 || 93
|-
| 1944 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 7.9 || 11 || 53 || 15 || 88
|-
| 1945 || Roosevelt-Truman || Democratic || -1 || 85 || 9 || 7 || 3
|-
| 1946 || Truman || Democratic || -11.6 || 94 || 1 || 1 || 1
|-
| 1947 || Truman || Democratic || -1.1 || 86 || 75 || 74 || 2
|-
| 1948 || Truman || Democratic || 4.1 || 35 || 69 || 10 || 78
|-
| 1949 || Truman || Democratic || -0.6 || 83 || 55 || 89 || 87
|-
| 1950 || Truman || Democratic || 8.7 || 8 || 7 || 4 || 24
|-
| 1951 || Truman || Democratic || 8 || 10 || 79 || 65 || 92
|-
| 1952 || Truman || Democratic || 4.1 || 36 || 46 || 83 || 91
|-
| 1953 || Eisenhower || Republican || 4.7 || 27 || 27 || 50 || 81
|-
| 1954 || Eisenhower || Republican || -0.6 || 82 || 72 || 76 || 4
|-
| 1955 || Eisenhower || Republican || 7.1 || 13 || 4 || 13 || 8
|-
| 1956 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.1 || 66 || 51 || 68 || 23
|-
| 1957 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.1 || 68 || 60 || 75 || 75
|-
| 1958 || Eisenhower || Republican || -0.7 || 84 || 83 || 82 || 64
|-
| 1959 || Eisenhower || Republican || 6.9 || 14 || 16 || 16 || 54
|-
| 1960 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.6 || 58 || 57 || 62 || 29
|-
| 1961 || Kennedy || Democratic || 2.6 || 59 || 71 || 63 || 76
|-
| 1962 || Kennedy || Democratic || 6.1 || 17 || 25 || 21 || 79
|-
| 1963 || Kennedy-Johnson || Democratic || 4.4 || 32 || 31 || 42 || 50
|-
| 1964 || Johnson || Democratic || 5.8 || 18 || 12 || 38 || 53
|-
| 1965 || Johnson || Democratic || 6.5 || 16 || 8 || 20 || 62
|-
| 1966 || Johnson || Democratic || 6.6 || 15 || 15 || 32 || 84
|-
| 1967 || Johnson || Democratic || 2.7 || 55 || 47 || 73 || 83
|-
| 1968 || Johnson || Democratic || 4.9 || 25 || 13 || 48 || 65
|-
| 1969 || Nixon || Republican || 3.1 || 48 || 38 || 51 || 22
|-
| 1970 || Nixon || Republican || 0.2 || 76 || 65 || 79 || 12
|-
| 1971 || Nixon || Republican || 3.3 || 46 || 35 || 28 || 13
|-
| 1972 || Nixon || Republican || 5.3 || 23 || 11 || 25 || 17
|-
| 1973 || Nixon || Republican || 5.6 || 20 || 26 || 27 || 19
|-
| 1974 || Nixon-Ford || Republican || -0.5 || 81 || 87 || 81 || 49
|-
| 1975 || Ford || Republican || -0.2 || 79 || 68 || 87 || 48
|-
| 1976 || Ford || Republican || 5.4 || 22 || 17 || 17 || 25
|-
| 1977 || Carter || Democratic || 4.6 || 29 || 29 || 18 || 34
|-
| 1978 || Carter || Democratic || 5.5 || 21 || 28 || 23 || 57
|-
| 1979 || Carter || Democratic || 3.2 || 47 || 67 || 56 || 39
|-
| 1980 || Carter || Democratic || -0.3 || 80 || 86 || 85 || 43
|-
| 1981 || Reagan || Republican || 2.5 || 63 || 81 || 33 || 32
|-
| 1982 || Reagan || Republican || -1.8 || 88 || 80 || 86 || 42
|-
| 1983 || Reagan || Republican || 4.6 || 28 || 14 || 30 || 69
|-
| 1984 || Reagan || Republican || 7.2 || 12 || 20 || 8 || 66
|-
| 1985 || Reagan || Republican || 4.2 || 33 || 23 || 66 || 80
|-
| 1986 || Reagan || Republican || 3.5 || 45 || 32 || 64 || 77
|-
| 1987 || Reagan || Republican || 3.5 || 44 || 43 || 60 || 58
|-
| 1988 || Reagan || Republican || 4.2 || 34 || 30 || 61 || 35
|-
| 1989 || Bush || Republican || 3.7 || 41 || 48 || 55 || 56
|-
| 1990 || Bush || Republican || 1.9 || 70 || 74 || 72 || 61
|-
| 1991 || Bush || Republican || -0.1 || 78 || 84 || 80 || 33
|-
| 1992 || Bush || Republican || 3.5 || 42 || 37 || 41 || 27
|-
| 1993 || Clinton || Democratic || 2.7 || 56 || 40 || 37 || 16
|-
| 1994 || Clinton || Democratic || 4 || 38 || 33 || 22 || 21
|-
| 1995 || Clinton || Democratic || 2.7 || 57 || 52 || 57 || 26
|-
| 1996 || Clinton || Democratic || 3.8 || 40 || 42 || 35 || 31
|-
| 1997 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.4 || 31 || 36 || 24 || 37
|-
| 1998 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.5 || 30 || 21 || 29 || 51
|-
| 1999 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.8 || 26 || 19 || 36 || 63
|-
| 2000 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.1 || 37 || 24 || 44 || 40
|-
| 2001 || Bush || Republican || 1 || 75 || 64 || 78 || 70
|-
| 2002 || Bush || Republican || 1.7 || 73 || 61 || 69 || 74
|-
| 2003 || Bush || Republican || 2.8 || 53 || 45 || 54 || 47
|-
| 2004 || Bush || Republican || 3.8 || 39 || 34 || 31 || 36
|-
| 2005 || Bush || Republican || 3.5 || 43 || 41 || 45 || 30
|-
| 2006 || Bush || Republican || 2.8 || 52 || 49 || 58 || 38
|-
| 2007 || Bush || Republican || 2 || 69 || 66 || 71 || 41
|-
| 2008 || Bush || Republican || 0.1 || 77 || 85 || 84 || 52
|-
| 2009 || Obama || Democratic || -2.6 || 90 || 88 || 88 || 68
|-
| 2010 || Obama || Democratic || 2.7 || 54 || 76 || 19 || 20
|-
| 2011 || Obama || Democratic || 1.6 || 74 || 77 || 43 || 7
|-
| 2012 || Obama || Democratic || 2.3 || 65 || 82 || 26 || 11
|-
| 2013 || Obama || Democratic || 2.1 || 67 || 78 || 40 || 10
|-
| 2014 || Obama || Democratic || 2.5 || 61 || 56 || 46 || 14
|-
| 2015 || Obama || Democratic || 2.9 || 51 || 44 || 47 || 45
|-
| 2016 || Obama || Democratic || 1.8 || 72 || 62 || 67 || 46
|-
| 2017 || Trump || Republican || 2.5 || 64 || 59 || 53 || 28
|-
| 2018 || Trump || Republican || 3 || 49 || 58 || 49 || 44
|-
| 2019 || Trump || Republican || 2.5 || 60 || 73 || 59 || 71
|-
| 2020 || Trump || Republican || -2.2 || 89 || 92 || 77 || 60
|-
| 2021 || Biden || Democratic || 5.8 || 19 || 3 || 34 || 18
|-
| 2022 || Biden || Democratic || 1.9 || 71 || 63 || 52 || 15
|-
| 2023 || Biden || Democratic || 2.5 || 62 || 70 || 70 || 73
|-
| 2024 || Biden || Democratic || 3 || 50 || 50 || 39 || 55
|}


=== 40 Year GDP Chart ===
While small in dollars, it can contribute significantly to growth or contraction of total GDP.  We're going to look only at Exports, not Imports.


[[File:40_year_gdp_chart.png | 800px]]
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=== Annual Real GDP Since 2001 ===
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== GDP At the Industry Level ==
The following are inputs to GDP at the industry level.  While they aren't exactly "GDP" numbers, they are the details that add up to GDP; thus, I continue to use the nomenclature "GDP"
 
=== Annual Real GDP Private vs Public Sectors ===
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=== Annual Real GDP Private Sector Goods and Services ===
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=== Annual Real GDP Construction, Manufacturing, and Farming ===
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=== Annual Real GDP Data, Finance, Health, and Retail ===
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Latest revision as of 15:55, 2 July 2026

The Bureau of Economic Analysis makes monthly updates to data which typically cause minor changes for the past several years.

Recent

Five Year Quarterly Real GDP

Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Quarters

Annual Real GDP Since 2021

Annual Headline and Real GDP Since 2021

Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Years+

Annual Rates of Change of GDP Components

Consumption and Investment

Consumption, which is 68% of total GDP and by far the largest component, and Investment, which is 18% and similarly sized to Government (next chart) which is 17%.

Government and Exports

Government spend is 17% of GDP, and Net Export, which is Exports minus Imports accounts for the last 3%.

While small in dollars, it can contribute significantly to growth or contraction of total GDP. We're going to look only at Exports, not Imports.

Annual Real GDP Since 2001

GDP At the Industry Level

The following are inputs to GDP at the industry level. While they aren't exactly "GDP" numbers, they are the details that add up to GDP; thus, I continue to use the nomenclature "GDP"

Annual Real GDP Private vs Public Sectors


Annual Real GDP Private Sector Goods and Services


Annual Real GDP Construction, Manufacturing, and Farming


Annual Real GDP Data, Finance, Health, and Retail

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