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| | The Bureau of Economic Analysis makes monthly updates to data which typically cause minor changes for the past several years. |
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| === What is GDP? === | | == Recent == |
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| [http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=gross%20domestic%20product-,gross%20domestic%20product,-(GDP)%20%2D%2D%20The ''Gross domestic product''], or '''GDP''', is the most widely accepted measurement of the health of a nation's economy.
| | === Five Year Quarterly Real GDP === |
| It is comprised of four components:
| | <html lang="en"> |
| # consumption (C) -- represents private-consumption expenditures by households and nonprofit organizations
| | <body> |
| # investment (I) -- refers to business expenditures by businesses and home purchases by households
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Qtr_5Yr_Cht&wdDownloadButton=True&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| # government spending (G) -- denotes expenditures on goods and services by the government
| | </body> |
| # net exports (NX) -- represents a nation’s exports minus its imports
| | </html> |
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| === How do we measure GDP and changes in GDP? === | | === Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Quarters === |
| The four components (C, I, G, and NX) can be referred to in '''nominal''' or '''real terms.''' ''Real'' terms are nominal measurements adjusted for inflation. This is critical for comparing growth from one year to the next ([http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=Britannica-,YOY,-%2D%2D%20means%20year%20over '''YOY''' or '''YOY Δ''']). For example, if GDP increased from 100 in 2020 to 110 in 2021, at first glance it looks like GDP increased by 10% YOY. If inflation was 5% YOY, however, then ''real GDP growth'' was actually only 5%.
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=Contri_to_GDP_QoQ_Annual_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
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| The below table show's a real example (in billions of US $):
| | === Annual Real GDP Since 2021 === |
| {| class="wikitable"
| | <html lang="en"> |
| |-
| | <body> |
| ! style="text-align:center;" | Year !! style="text-align:center;" | Nominal GDP !! % !! style="text-align:center;" | Real GDP!! %
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Ann_Real_5Yr_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| |-
| | </body> |
| | style="text-align:center;" | 2020 || style="text-align:right;" | 21,323.0 || || style="text-align:right;" | 20,234.2
| | </html> |
| |-
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| | style="text-align:center;" | 2021 || style="text-align:right;" | 23,594.0 || || style="text-align:right;" | 21,407.6
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| | style="text-align:center;" | YOY Δ || style="text-align:right;" | 2,271.0 || +10.7 || style="text-align:right;" | 1,173.4|| +5.8
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| |}
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| === How do we interpret GDP and GDP Δ measurements? === | | === Annual Headline and Real GDP Since 2021 === |
| First, it is important to acknowledge the ''relative'' size of each of the four components:
| | <html lang="en"> |
| C = [http://amerimetrics.com/index.php?title=Glossary_of_Common_Terms#:~:text=notate%20change.-,~,-%2D%2D%20is%20a%20symbol '''~''']68%
| | <body> |
| I = ~18%
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Ann_Real_Head_5Yr_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| G = ~17%
| | </body> |
| NX = ~-3%
| | </html> |
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| at only ''three'' of the ''four'' components are significant.
| | === Contributions to Real GDP for Past Five Years+ === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=Contri_to_GDP_QoQ_Annual_Ch%20(2)&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
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| === 90 Year US GDP Table === | | === Annual Rates of Change of GDP Components === |
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| Sources:
| | ==== Consumption and Investment ==== |
| * For years 1930-2023: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey&_gl=1*2cz8zx*_ga*NTY2OTg1NDg2LjE3MjYyMzUyMDM.*_ga_J4698JNNFT*MTcyNzA5ODgxNy45LjEuMTcyNzA5OTgzMS40OS4wLjA.
| | Consumption, which is 68% of total GDP and by far the largest component, and Investment, which is 18% and similarly sized to Government (next chart) which is 17%. |
| ** For [[YOY]] 1930-2023 Table 1.1.1
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| ** Table 1.1.5
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| ** Table 1.1.9
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| * https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-corporate-profits-preliminary-estimate-second
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| {| class="wikitable sortable"
| | <html lang="en"> |
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| | <body> |
| ! Year !! President !! Political Party !! 1:Gross domestic product !! 1:GDP Rank !! 2:Consumption Rank !! 7:Private Investment Rank !! 22:Govt Rank
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Ann_Real_Cons_5Yr_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
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| | </body> |
| | 1930 || Hoover || Republican || -8.5 || 93 || 94 || 91 || 86
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| | 1931 || Hoover || Republican || -6.4 || 92 || 93 || 92 || 72
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| | 1932 || Hoover || Republican || -12.9 || 95 || 95 || 95 || 6
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| | 1933 || Roosevelt || Democratic || -1.2 || 87 || 90 || 6 || 9
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| | 1934 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 10.8 || 5 || 5 || 3 || 89
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| | 1935 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8.9 || 6 || 10 || 2 || 59
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| | 1936 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 12.9 || 4 || 2 || 9 || 90
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| | 1937 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 5.1 || 24 || 39 || 12 || 5
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| | 1938 || Roosevelt || Democratic || -3.3 || 91 || 89 || 90 || 82
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| | 1939 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8 || 9 || 18 || 11 || 85
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| | 1940 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 8.8 || 7 || 22 || 5 || 67
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| | 1941 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 17.7 || 2 || 6 || 14 || 94
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| | 1942 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 18.9 || 1 || 91 || 94 || 95
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| | 1943 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 17 || 3 || 54 || 93 || 93
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| | 1944 || Roosevelt || Democratic || 7.9 || 11 || 53 || 15 || 88
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| | 1945 || Roosevelt-Truman || Democratic || -1 || 85 || 9 || 7 || 3
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| | 1946 || Truman || Democratic || -11.6 || 94 || 1 || 1 || 1
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| | 1947 || Truman || Democratic || -1.1 || 86 || 75 || 74 || 2
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| | 1948 || Truman || Democratic || 4.1 || 35 || 69 || 10 || 78
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| | 1949 || Truman || Democratic || -0.6 || 83 || 55 || 89 || 87
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| | 1950 || Truman || Democratic || 8.7 || 8 || 7 || 4 || 24
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| | 1951 || Truman || Democratic || 8 || 10 || 79 || 65 || 92
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| | 1952 || Truman || Democratic || 4.1 || 36 || 46 || 83 || 91
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| | 1953 || Eisenhower || Republican || 4.7 || 27 || 27 || 50 || 81
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| | 1954 || Eisenhower || Republican || -0.6 || 82 || 72 || 76 || 4
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| | 1955 || Eisenhower || Republican || 7.1 || 13 || 4 || 13 || 8
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| | 1956 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.1 || 66 || 51 || 68 || 23
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| | 1957 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.1 || 68 || 60 || 75 || 75
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| | 1958 || Eisenhower || Republican || -0.7 || 84 || 83 || 82 || 64
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| | 1959 || Eisenhower || Republican || 6.9 || 14 || 16 || 16 || 54
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| | 1960 || Eisenhower || Republican || 2.6 || 58 || 57 || 62 || 29
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| | 1961 || Kennedy || Democratic || 2.6 || 59 || 71 || 63 || 76
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| | 1962 || Kennedy || Democratic || 6.1 || 17 || 25 || 21 || 79
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| | 1963 || Kennedy-Johnson || Democratic || 4.4 || 32 || 31 || 42 || 50
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| | 1964 || Johnson || Democratic || 5.8 || 18 || 12 || 38 || 53
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| | 1965 || Johnson || Democratic || 6.5 || 16 || 8 || 20 || 62
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| | 1966 || Johnson || Democratic || 6.6 || 15 || 15 || 32 || 84
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| | 1967 || Johnson || Democratic || 2.7 || 55 || 47 || 73 || 83
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| | 1968 || Johnson || Democratic || 4.9 || 25 || 13 || 48 || 65
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| | 1969 || Nixon || Republican || 3.1 || 48 || 38 || 51 || 22
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| | 1970 || Nixon || Republican || 0.2 || 76 || 65 || 79 || 12
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| | 1971 || Nixon || Republican || 3.3 || 46 || 35 || 28 || 13
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| | 1972 || Nixon || Republican || 5.3 || 23 || 11 || 25 || 17
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| | 1973 || Nixon || Republican || 5.6 || 20 || 26 || 27 || 19
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| | 1974 || Nixon-Ford || Republican || -0.5 || 81 || 87 || 81 || 49
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| | 1975 || Ford || Republican || -0.2 || 79 || 68 || 87 || 48
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| | 1976 || Ford || Republican || 5.4 || 22 || 17 || 17 || 25
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| | 1977 || Carter || Democratic || 4.6 || 29 || 29 || 18 || 34
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| | 1978 || Carter || Democratic || 5.5 || 21 || 28 || 23 || 57
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| | 1979 || Carter || Democratic || 3.2 || 47 || 67 || 56 || 39
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| | 1980 || Carter || Democratic || -0.3 || 80 || 86 || 85 || 43
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| | 1981 || Reagan || Republican || 2.5 || 63 || 81 || 33 || 32
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| | 1982 || Reagan || Republican || -1.8 || 88 || 80 || 86 || 42
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| | 1983 || Reagan || Republican || 4.6 || 28 || 14 || 30 || 69
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| | 1984 || Reagan || Republican || 7.2 || 12 || 20 || 8 || 66
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| | 1985 || Reagan || Republican || 4.2 || 33 || 23 || 66 || 80
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| | 1986 || Reagan || Republican || 3.5 || 45 || 32 || 64 || 77
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| | 1987 || Reagan || Republican || 3.5 || 44 || 43 || 60 || 58
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| | 1988 || Reagan || Republican || 4.2 || 34 || 30 || 61 || 35
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| | 1989 || Bush || Republican || 3.7 || 41 || 48 || 55 || 56
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| | 1990 || Bush || Republican || 1.9 || 70 || 74 || 72 || 61
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| | 1991 || Bush || Republican || -0.1 || 78 || 84 || 80 || 33
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| | 1992 || Bush || Republican || 3.5 || 42 || 37 || 41 || 27
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| | 1993 || Clinton || Democratic || 2.7 || 56 || 40 || 37 || 16
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| | 1994 || Clinton || Democratic || 4 || 38 || 33 || 22 || 21
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| | 1995 || Clinton || Democratic || 2.7 || 57 || 52 || 57 || 26
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| | 1996 || Clinton || Democratic || 3.8 || 40 || 42 || 35 || 31
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| | 1997 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.4 || 31 || 36 || 24 || 37
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| | 1998 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.5 || 30 || 21 || 29 || 51
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| | 1999 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.8 || 26 || 19 || 36 || 63
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| | 2000 || Clinton || Democratic || 4.1 || 37 || 24 || 44 || 40
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| | 2001 || Bush || Republican || 1 || 75 || 64 || 78 || 70
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| | 2002 || Bush || Republican || 1.7 || 73 || 61 || 69 || 74
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| | 2003 || Bush || Republican || 2.8 || 53 || 45 || 54 || 47
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| | 2004 || Bush || Republican || 3.8 || 39 || 34 || 31 || 36
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| | 2005 || Bush || Republican || 3.5 || 43 || 41 || 45 || 30
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| | 2006 || Bush || Republican || 2.8 || 52 || 49 || 58 || 38
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| | 2007 || Bush || Republican || 2 || 69 || 66 || 71 || 41
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| | 2008 || Bush || Republican || 0.1 || 77 || 85 || 84 || 52
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| | 2009 || Obama || Democratic || -2.6 || 90 || 88 || 88 || 68
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| | 2010 || Obama || Democratic || 2.7 || 54 || 76 || 19 || 20
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| | 2011 || Obama || Democratic || 1.6 || 74 || 77 || 43 || 7
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| | 2012 || Obama || Democratic || 2.3 || 65 || 82 || 26 || 11
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| | 2013 || Obama || Democratic || 2.1 || 67 || 78 || 40 || 10
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| | 2014 || Obama || Democratic || 2.5 || 61 || 56 || 46 || 14
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| | 2015 || Obama || Democratic || 2.9 || 51 || 44 || 47 || 45
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| | 2016 || Obama || Democratic || 1.8 || 72 || 62 || 67 || 46
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| | 2017 || Trump || Republican || 2.5 || 64 || 59 || 53 || 28
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| | 2018 || Trump || Republican || 3 || 49 || 58 || 49 || 44
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| | 2019 || Trump || Republican || 2.5 || 60 || 73 || 59 || 71
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| | 2020 || Trump || Republican || -2.2 || 89 || 92 || 77 || 60
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| | 2021 || Biden || Democratic || 5.8 || 19 || 3 || 34 || 18
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| | 2022 || Biden || Democratic || 1.9 || 71 || 63 || 52 || 15
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| | 2023 || Biden || Democratic || 2.5 || 62 || 70 || 70 || 73
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| | 2024 || Biden || Democratic || 3 || 50 || 50 || 39 || 55
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| |}
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| === 40 Year GDP Chart === | | ==== Government and Exports ==== |
| | Government spend is 17% of GDP, and Net Export, which is Exports minus Imports accounts for the last 3%. |
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| [[File:40_year_gdp_chart.png | 800px]]
| | While small in dollars, it can contribute significantly to growth or contraction of total GDP. We're going to look only at Exports, not Imports. |
| | |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Ann_Real_Gov_5Yr_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
| | |
| | === Annual Real GDP Since 2001 === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Ann_Real_25Yr_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True&edaebf=rslc0"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
| | |
| | == GDP At the Industry Level == |
| | The following are inputs to GDP at the industry level. While they aren't exactly "GDP" numbers, they are the details that add up to GDP; thus, I continue to use the nomenclature "GDP" |
| | |
| | === Annual Real GDP Private vs Public Sectors === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Industry_Pres_Cht&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
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| | |
| | === Annual Real GDP Private Sector Goods and Services === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Industry_Pres_Cht%20(2)&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
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| | |
| | === Annual Real GDP Construction, Manufacturing, and Farming === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Industry_Pres_Cht%20(3)&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
| | |
| | |
| | === Annual Real GDP Data, Finance, Health, and Retail === |
| | <html lang="en"> |
| | <body> |
| | <iframe width="925" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" src="https://1drv.ms/x/c/8dfedc7a762e3fd5/IQTIaoWvQt9gQaPZ98d_Af8_AfplLAPATvVuZlUjcMGh7jE?em=2&wdAllowInteractivity=False&Item=GDP_Industry_Pres_Cht%20(4)&wdInConfigurator=True&wdInConfigurator=True"></iframe> |
| | </body> |
| | </html> |
